Phil Garland

“It is said that if you drop a frog in hot water, he’ll jump out. If you put him in lukewarm water and very slowly raise the temperature, the frog will stay there until he dies.

We’re not frogs. We have the capacity to see and to know when we’re sliding too far into an unhealthy situation. But we have to take note of what we see. We don’t have to continue down a slippery slope. We can stop, turn around, and head in the other direction. But this can only be done when we see our situation for what it is.”

– Steven Hagen, Buddhism Plain and Simple

After moving 2,000 miles across the country, away from the fast-paced northeast corridor of the United States, I’d say yes, it’s possible to get away from anxiety. The more time I spend calling Denver home, the more I realize my surroundings were like the boiling pot of water. I often say I was raised in Maine but grew up in Washington DC.

Growing Up

My experiences in DC were much like a slow boil. I grew up in the environment, it was the first place I lived on my own, the first place I got a professional job, and the first place I found a lot out about myself. It also was terrible for my anxiety. Fast-paced, fake, and corporate ladder climbing are words that come to mind. For me, it was a mixing pot of all the wrong influences.

I knew something was off, but much like the content-until-boiled frog, I never quite figured out why. Two years ago, when I traveled the country to “find me,” my mind opened up. I could feel the anxiety going away and my true self coming into fruition. I ran from anxiety and am much happier because of it.

I sold my car, found an apartment where I could easily walk to daily necessities, developed ties in the community, explored nature, and worked on finding me.

Running From Problems 

This is where my advice falters. You cannot run from your problems. Inner problems will never go away unless you slay them. Re-locating, or changing your lifestyle, may limit anxiety, but it will not slay your demons. Those take time, persistence, and actively trying to move forward. Anxiety can be lessened by changing your surroundings, but problems cannot be solved.

If you move make sure you know the reasons and what you’re trying to “find.” It’s much easier to fix your problems when not anxiety-ridden, but running will not solve your problems.

I traveled a lot today. From 2am EST to 4:30pm MST. I don’t have much energy to write too much. But during a delay on the tarmac in Minneapolis I started reading Isaac Morehouse’s Better Off Free. It’s an amazing book talking about our need to be free individuals in our thoughts and the downfalls of government interference. I highly recommend checking it out.

More in-depth blogs are coming, but reflection and replenishing are in order as well.

I love spending time with my family. At the end of the day, they are who raised me. But they are so much more than that. My parents, and sisters, are the ones who have guide me to the person I am today. Without them, I couldn’t be me. Whether you’re an only child, a middle child, or a child with many siblings, I think we can all agree we are the best of our surroundings.

I love my family, who they’ve turned me into, who they’ve become, and they want to become. For this, I am grateful. I love having a family so supportive and understanding, not only of my life, but of the lives we all want to become. My strength comes from my family, the support from them, and the path they’ve laid out in front of me. They are the true reason for my successes, and the pedestal for my problems. Without my family I would not prosper as the person I am.

This Christmas I cherish my family. I cherish the support system around me. And I believe in the group of people that calls me son, or brother. For my family is the best I could ever ask for. I love you all, and for all a goodnight.

Merry Christmas Eve to everyone. It’s a wonderful time of the year to be with friends, family, and people important to us. I am enjoying the evening with my family, and not spending time to blog.

After months of flat-lining, the price of Bitcoin has experienced a sharp incline over the past few weeks as you can tell from this chart. When Bitcoin sky-rockets, so do articles about Bitcoin and people start hypothesizing why the price increases. Is it Venezuela’s inflated economy? India’s new currency policies? Or, as I’ll argue, impossible to tell?

Terminology

First, we must start with a couple of terms, efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and praxeology, the study of human action.

Efficient Market Hypothesis, as explained by Burton G. Malkiel:

The Žefficient market hypothesis is associated with the idea of a “random walk,” which is a term loosely used in the Žfinance literature to characterize a price series where all subsequent price changes represent random departures from previous prices. The logic of the random walk idea is that if the  flow of information is unimpeded and information is immediately reflected in stock prices, then tomorrow’s price change will reflect only tomorrow’s news and will be independent of the price changes today. But news is by definition unpredictable, and, thus, resulting price changes must be unpredictable and random. As a result, prices fully reflect all known information, and even uninformed investors buying a diversified portfolio at the tableau of prices given by the market will obtain a rate of return as erroneous as that achieved by the experts.

Praxeology, as explained by Murray N. Rothbard:

Action implies that the individual’s behavior is purposive, in short, that it is directed toward goals. Furthermore, the fact of his action implies that he has consciously chosen certain means to reach his goals. Since he wishes to attain these goals, they must be valuable to him; accordingly he must have values that govern his choices. That he employs means implies that he believes he has the technological knowledge that certain means will achieve his desired ends. Let us note that praxeology does not assume that a person’s choice of values or goals is wise or proper or that he has chosen the technologically correct method of reaching them. All that praxeology asserts is that the individual actor adopts goals and believes, whether erroneously or correctly, that he can arrive at them by the employment of certain means.

Takeaways

EMH and praxeology, as outlined by Malkiel and Rothbard, both point out an important idea. Information changes each and everyday, markets employ the knew knowledge efficiently, and the users of that knowledge are individuals who believe that the knowledge they possess “will achieve his desired ends.”

Because individual actors make up the aggregate, one cannot extrapolate in reverse. For example, 10 people buy apples from a store. Each person bought the apples for a different reason. One to keep the doctor away, another to bake a pie, another to play bobbing for apples, etc. But the store only knows it sold 10 apples, it doesn’t know why the consumer bought them. It would be foolish to extrapolate in reverse. To make claims of why the apples were bought based on knowing 10 apples were sold is the same logical fallacy as making the claim for Bitcoin.

Although Bitcoin prices have sky-rocketed recently, it’d be foolish to extrapolate reasoning for why. Every person has a different reason. Investment purposes, economic instability, for fun, who knows? Individuals act in their best interest, but with imperfect knowledge. Each data point is valid only if we know the thoughts of the individual. In aggregate we do not, thus making extrapolations of data is a fools-errand.

Technology Doesn’t Eliminate Natural Laws

With the introduction of smarter technology: AI, machine-learning, data-mining, etc. people assume we’ll live in an information-perfect world. The problem is, the order of the world is based on individual’s action. No matter how much data can be collected, it’s impossible to tell why people act the way they do. If everyday for years I go to the same coffeeshop you could probably assume I’d go there the next day. However, there’s nothing to say one day I’ll decide to switch it up.

With the influx of technology it’s more important than ever to remember we are individuals acting in our own best interest. Whether in the Stone Age or the great technology era, we are, and always will be, individuals acting for ourselves. Simplifying the world into aggregates, simple phrases, or cool news headlines is nice, but not reflective of the laws of nature. We are our own decision makers and no aggregation can claim to know exactly why we do things.

Habit formation is great, but when you hang out with people important to you, it’s important your habits are flexible enough to let them in. Depending on how much time you spend with someone should help in deciding how closely you follow your habit scripts.

For example, if you see someone everyday they must be flexible to the habits that make you successful. But if you only see people twice a year, your habits must be flexible for them. Time spent with people important to you is worth the temporary sacrifice of habits.

Here are a couple of quotes I’ve pulled from reading I’ve been using to replenish my well. One’s from Buddhism Plain and Simple by Steven Hagen, the other from Meditations by Marcus Aurelius.

From Hagen:

It is said that if you drop a frog in hot water, he’ll jump out. If you put him in lukewarm water and very slowly raise the temperature, the frog will stay there until he dies.

We’re not frogs. We have the capacity to see and to know when we’re sliding too far into an unhealthy situation. But we have to take note of what we see. We don’t have to continue down a slippery slope. We can stop, turn around, and head in the other direction. But this can only be done when we see our situation for what it is.

From Aurelius:

Remember how long you’ve been putting this off, how many extensions the gods gave you, and you didn’t use them. At some point you have to recognize what world it is that you belong to; what power rules it and from what source you spring; that there is a limit to the time assigned you, and if you don’t use it to free yourself it will be gone and will never return.

These quotes both will be turned into full blogs. But for now they’ll remain quotes. I’m replenishing the well, which, in time, will produce blog posts with a nice mixture of Austrian Economics, Stoicism, Buddhism, and living your life your way.

I’ve read on a few blogs that some writers take 10-12 hours of reading in order to write one solid blog post. Over the past four-months I’d say that’s probably true. A lot of times when I write I feel I’m depleting a valuable resource. The resource of thought. I had been going strong for until I hit a wall. Either I wrote too much about the same topic, or focused too much on recent reading/recent experiences, but somewhere I emptied the writing well.

My next week, in time with the holidays, will be focused on replenishing the writing well. To read more, and think about philosophies of life. I will continue blogging daily, but they probably won’t be as developed as I’d hope. Here’s to a week of reflection and devoting more time to learning.

I challenged myself to daily blogging. It has been a wonderful challenge. But every time I go to write a post I challenge myself to make something unique, something new, and something long winded.

Sometimes it’s enough to write a short post.

We don’t need tons of articles floating out their all saying the same thing.  We need action.

Daily blogging is about daily action. Daily actions create habits. And habits create the person we want to become.

I for one am proud I can write this, publish a post, and move forward to tomorrow.

Sometimes short is enough.